Emerging Stability-Instability Paradox in the Indo-Pacific-Implications to Japan-US Security Relations-
By: Professor Shuhei Takemoto (Akita International University, Japan)
The Indo-Pacific stands at an inflection point. As China accelerates its nuclear modernization and expands its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, the traditional balance of power that has underpinned regional stability is shifting. This presentation examines the emerging “stability–instability paradox”, how mutual nuclear deterrence may embolden limited wars, and explores its strategic implications for Japan–U.S. security relations.
Drawing from recent wargames, defense analyses, and evolving U.S. strategic priorities, Professor Takemoto assesses the potential futures for the region: from strengthened allied deterrence to U.S. retrenchment beyond the First Island Chain. The presentation offers a sobering yet insightful look into the challenges and choices shaping the next decade of Indo-Pacific security.
